"A risk of frustration and abstention": Will Emmanuel Macron announce a referendum?

The French are overwhelmingly in favour (83%) of holding a referendum and place the economy, pensions and immigration at the top of the list of subjects on which they would like to be questioned, according to an Elabe poll for our colleagues at BFMTV , published this Sunday, May 11.

Especially since according to La Tribune Dimanche , the head of state is expected to present on TF1 on Tuesday evening, "barring any last-minute changes," the "referendum that he probably wants to organize in the fall." According to the Sunday weekly, "three very different questions [...] but with a "single ballot paper," "linked to the daily lives of the French," potentially on the end of life, screens, work and its financing.

These themes, however, are far removed from what emerged from the Elabe poll, according to which the French are more inclined towards public spending, debt, and taxes (59% of respondents), but also towards immigration and pensions (52%). Specifically, a referendum on immigration is the majority of National Rally voters, while NFP voters are in favor of a question on pensions.

"The use of screens by children, school schedules, and the proportional voting system for legislative elections are cited by less than a quarter of French people," reports the Elabe poll.

How will the French be asked to vote? Referendum or consultation? Constitutionalist Benjamin Morel leans more toward the second option. "The first is an instrument that allows the president to ask the people to decide on a divisive issue. The second has no legal value," he recalled this Sunday on RMC .

In the case of a referendum, if the vote is yes, the question becomes law. But in the case of a consultation, "if you don't have a text behind it," especially since there is no majority in the National Assembly, "it risks not being well received by the French people," the law professor explained on Anaïs Matin , who points to potential "frustration, high abstention, and even more distrust."

Although 43% of those surveyed would like to take a position on the end of life, a referendum on this issue, like immigration, is difficult to imagine from a constitutional point of view, under Article 11 which allows the French to be asked only questions relating to the organisation of public powers, reforms relating to the nation's economic or social policy and the public services which contribute to it.

"Whatever form it takes, it's a bit of a political maneuver" by Emmanuel Macron to "put himself back at the center of the game," Benjamin Morel emphasizes. The idea of ​​a referendum or a consultation has been "put forward" by the president "for several years" and highlights the concept of "a breath of fresh air for democracy in the middle of his five-year term."

The last referendum the French were subjected to was held 20 years ago, on 25 May 2005 under the presidency of Jacques Chirac and concerning the approval of the "bill authorising the ratification of the treaty establishing a constitution for Europe".

The "no" vote won with 54.67% of the vote, with a 69.33% turnout. Except that the Lisbon Treaty, adopted by parliament in 2007 under Nicolas Sarkozy's presidency, incorporated most of the elements found in the constitutional treaty. "This had a profound impact on the French, who feel that the referendum serves no purpose [...] It also "created a profound trauma in the political world," believes Benjamin Morel.

The idea of ​​a referendum was also raised by Prime Minister François Bayrou on May 3, regarding public finances and the 2026 state budget, justifying it as a "serious enough issue, with enough serious consequences for the future of the nation, for it to be addressed directly to citizens," he declared in the JDD.

During a visit to Brest on Saturday, "the idea has penetrated public opinion," the mayor of Pau said. "The political world is a little less enthusiastic, and we understand why: because direct citizen intervention changes the balance of power and the debate," according to the Prime Minister.